Live Handicapping Saturday 1/28/23

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Big cards at Gulfstream and Oaklawn today, guys. Both tracks open early. Gulf at 10:50 Eastern.

Expect to head up to the track late but will be here for a while. So let's go.

All welcome. Only rule, keep a running record of your action.

Thanks and good luck. We're due for a solid day in the thread. Let's make it today!
 

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Good luck MIchel I see you are high up the board for the NFL Playoff contest here. GL on that as well.
 

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Race 13 | Dirt | 9 Furlongs | $3,000,000 G1 Pegasus World Cup | 4YO+
#1 Proxy

Bit fresh here just the one spin since July but that hasn’t been an obstacle in career. Three straight 80+ Finals. Previous 72+/80+ lines mean plenty of room for more sustained pace after that SOFT pattern so upgrade what you thought of the last performance. Not many in here hitting -10 dirt spreads so a possible late/sustained speed advantage here can help him overcome if he gets buried early.
#2 Simplification
Moved forward off the NPT in last so looks to be in a good spot condition-wise while also showing good development in ability with a nice spike from the FOY running line to what he’s doing now at the same trip. Bad news is there’s some others that have shown even more development in their 3yo to 4yo ability. Back to the good news, price offered should be plenty fair.
#3 Ridin With Biden
Habitual winner been doing his thing at Parx but waters are deep on the ship. Several of today’s opponents have visited and popped much better Final Figures there.
#4 White Abbario
Runner gets back to where he did his damage early in career after being well-travelled and finding it hard to catch a field he can best outside of Florida. There was a time when you’d be elated to be offered 10/1 but not looking so enticing now after being beat by rivals he’ll see today in three straight. In hindsight, might be in a better spot today if he would have stayed home and campaigned.
#5 Defunded
West coast shipper likely isn’t flying over to run a dud. Expect an honest try from the bell here. Good mix of speed and compression give this one options to handle several different race flows. Can’t imagine this one doesn’t take a decent chunk of support here and offer something close to co-favoritism.
#6 Art Collector
Capable to handle high sustained speed when at best. Question mark here at 119 days off as runner has needed a race a couple times in career when launching new campaigns. Tough to trust past his prime at 6yo with all others closer to the average racehorse peak of 4.5yo.
#7 Skippylongstocking
Sports a nice 75h/79 local win in last, worth something welcoming out-of-town shippers. Sure looked strong off that winter break and had plenty of durability throughout sophomore campaign so there’s foundation there to say he can handle this breakout performance off the break and show right back up again.
#8 Get Her Number
Cross out the slop try and it’s a big stretchout from ’22 campaign. Those sprint lines were nicely compressed, a positive for extra distance tries, so there’s something to like here experimenting with back to two turns for first time in a while. Decision may have been made to try this a long time ago because they’ve really been working him on the morning tab. Live longshot.
#9 Last Samurai
Shown just a touch more ability since the NPT/DTOP conditioning. Would have liked to see a bit more improvement out of that combo before taking on this spot but there’s enough there that this is probably one to watch going forward another day.
#10 Cyberknife
If indeed sent off with the most support, not the “got it in the bag” type of favorite we’ve seen in years past for this race. Recent history of this race has been dominated by heavy favorites when they’re present. In the couple editions where there was no horse under 2/1, the favorite failed. Runner was on a nice long sophomore campaign working up to the top condition that saw him take the Haskell and just miss the BC Dirt Mile in last half of the year. Now must show he can jump right back into top racing form after experiencing first lay-off of career. Sounds like a potential favorite I want to try and beat.
#11 Stilleto Boy
Best spins seem to be behind him with Final Figures far behind this field recently.
#12 O’Connor (CHI)
The local threat off a good-looking COMP/REV to start stateside career and now thrust into this confident spot even though failing first time against winners. Now that the “stateside bounce” is out of the way, look for possibility of seeing his best today. I find that local winners can sometimes offer nice overlays and get sent off as bomb longshots as everyone welcomes in shippers for big-name connections with their wagers.
 
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Hi Jack. Yea. Doing OK in the NFL contest. Was 3 points from 1st with a month to go in the big NFL contest. Fell right out of the money by sucking down the stretch. That could very well happen again. THese games this weekend are really tough to handicap. They look awfully close on paper. Focusing on turnovers. Hard to predict but they make the difference when the talent is as close as it is this weekend. We'll see.

Thanks for the Pegasus contribution.

Come on and join us some day. Have some fun!

Hope all is well.
 

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OK MIchel thx for the rundown. Yeah these NFL Lines are tight and the teams look evenly matched. One of these days I may jump back in your thread but not in a capping mode currently. May Play AQ with Ninja today on Derby Wars and tail the picks. thx.
 
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GP
1st
$4.00 exacta box
#s 2, 3
$2.00 exacta box
#3 with #s 1, 5, 7, 12, 13
($28.00 total)
33 minutes
 
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OK MIchel thx for the rundown. Yeah these NFL Lines are tight and the teams look evenly matched. One of these days I may jump back in your thread but not in a capping mode currently. May Play AQ with Ninja today on Derby Wars and tail the picks. thx.
How is ninja doing? Where has he been?
 

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Shitty day for me yesterday. I really need you guys to throw out some winners. Best of luck to you all today!

GP R2
#6 Foxburg - $16 Win
 

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GP Race 2

.50 Tri wheel

6 8 9/ 1 3 6 7 8 9 / 1 3 6 7 8 9

$30 Total Bet
 

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